A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
